ETF Prophet

Check out Ronald Domingues’ “inefficient markets” timing poll. Those that make the grade have access to the predictions of some of the best out there. Many have consistent 75%+ daily records. How do they do it? Join the challenge and find out! PS – To learn more about how I prepare my daily estimates, consider [...]

The market gap higher pushed short term indicators well into overbought territory. Although first hour indications pointed towards a potential trend day, volume wasn’t there and the Advance – Decline line did not confirm the move. Then the VIX made a sharp reversal higher just ahead of the “official” Chrysler bankruptcy announcement. Though is seems [...]

Another nice example of the hairy bottom pattern yesterday as traders tried to game the Fed news. The volatility that started about 14:15 is typical of Fed news events, typically characterized by a quick move in direction A, followed by a short trend in the opposite direction, followed by a resumption of direction A. In [...]

The Federal Reserve has clearly accepted the “slowing decline” thesis with no net changes to policy:

We have seen tremendous breadth in the A-D line, and Cumulative Tick and Up Volume this morning are as strong as we’ve seen in several days. However, the big move in advance of the FOMC statement only increases the possibility for high magnitude noise going into the afternoon session. I’ll be watching the yield curve [...]

Yesterday provided a classic example of one of my favorite daytrading trend reversal patterns…the hairy bottom. The pattern is shown on 2 minute bars, although it can often be detected on 5 and sometimes 10 minute bars. The confirmation of the midpanel technicals is indicated by the green arrow, which was also picture perfect with [...]

The market recovered from yet another sizable gap down. The resiliency was supported by strongly sloped cumulative tick and advance decline lines, and a falling VIX. Note that volume is just a touch ahead of yesterday’s — which is to say — on the low side. Perhaps institutional desks are holding out for tomorrow’s FOMC [...]

The Qs made a run at the November highs yesterday before retracing back to the VWAP into the close. Volume was unusually anemic as traders appear poised to head for the exits on the first break of support.The pivots, as usual, provided great intraday swing targets and both the parabolics and the 7/14 MA cross [...]

It was a mixed day today, since it’s “supposed” to tank weeks ago, SPY is being kept up by the Goldman scum once again… but there’s no limit to careless manipulation to keep news “bad” while keeping the pump going strong even without institutional participation: A “confusion”/”misunderstanding” about a photo up plane flight triggered a [...]

Image via Wikipedia That is all for today – the index is now, once again, on sell.  That means we’ll look for short side opportunities here.

We recovered nicely off of the five day moving average for the nth time. However, the market encountered some resistance near Friday’s late session trade, and has pulled back to the Volume Weighted Average Price. Note that Down volume has been outpacing Up Volume for most of the day in spite of the early a.m. [...]

Here’s this week’s Pivot Bands update for the Qs and the Pivot Impulse Indicator. After 7 weeks of upslope gains on constricting volatility, the bands have been getting progressively scrunched for the past 4 weeks. The Qs Pivot Impulse indicator (red line) has now reached the .5 resistance level that has held for the last [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) We finally saw a pause in the recovery incline, but only by a touch with the S&P500 (SPY) ending the week down just -0.5%. However, the NASDAQ100 was able to post a seventh week of gains at +1.1%, leaving it just -1.0% below its 10-month moving average. The weekly trade [...]

Here’s a little setup I introduced in the Rewind Chatroom today. The disolay is from bestfreecharts.com, the platform of the Qs 5 minute real time chart posted on the right side of the blog.What the chart displays are the parabolics (.02/.2), the VWAP line, the daily pivots and 3 linear regression lines(30,14,7). The white circled [...]

We are making a second run at the Monday gap lower on strong internals. Note how the five day moving average (dashed cyan line) is again moving higher. Interestingly; however, we have seen fewer extreme tick highs today relative to the last few days, and volume appears to be fading ahead of the “stress test” [...]

Semiconductors (SMH) are down over 3%, weighing heavily on the broader indices. Financials (XLF), Energy (XLE) and Transports (IYT) are actually higher on the day. Tick attempted to up-shift a short while ago on an apparent buy program when support was found along the bottom of the hourly trend channel in spite of negative internals. [...]

Here’s a little follow-up to my ongoing study of how (or if) the VXN and VIX are useful tools in forecasting at least short term momentum of various stocks and ETFs. RIMM, of course, is one of the more volatile components of the Qs and an integral part of my 3 Finger Lead and Reverse [...]

The market quickly found support at the open near its pivot and then proceeded to rocket towards R1 on the SPY ($85.90). After several resilient hours just over Monday’s opening gap down, that price level was summarily rejected and we are now sitting near the VWAP on Cumulative Tick and Advance Decline lines that appear [...]