ETF Prophet

Nothing stays the same so I’ve deployed a new weekly update format incorporating the 2 sets of ETF basket Telecharts I previously posted. The settings are as follows:In the upper window of candlestick prices I’ve overlaid the MR6 (6 period moving linear regression channel) in white, the VIX in red and the 30,12,30 linear regression [...]

The good news today… is that with numbers like this, it becomes much easier to beat to the upside down the road. With prices down over 50% from peak values, the market knows this and can begin to think about recovery down the way. How long that road is; however, remains anyone’s guess. Cumulative Tick [...]

Here’s part of the larger standard deviation/ mean reversion system I’m putting together for the Qs as the final component of the Qs Dirty Dozen. The system trades both long and short and, as with most of the systems I’ve examined recently over this backtest period, the short side produces considerably better results than the [...]

The market has given up most of its morning gains and is poised to break back down below the daily pivot (SPY $77.15). The NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) is actually negative on the day. All daily directional indicators have turned south, and we had a mild negative bias coming into the day. Trade nimbly — while [...]

This is a little closer look at the %B function referred to in yesterday’s post. Just to get a sense of the type of signals the %B might generate I’ve lined it up with the RSI2 for comparison purposes. And I’ve added the overlay of the 8 and 16 MAs to examine the relative performance [...]

Yesterday’s large bounce and volatility crush set us up for a reversion to the mean on perceived tax-and-spend rhetoric and poor housing news. I thought we might string together a second gain, but the models beat my personal outlook once again. Although intra-day directional indicators are weak at best, at the mid-day it seems we [...]

Here’s a little thumbnail for gauging how far this rally is likely to go and as such it’s a short only system. The system hold time optimizes at 10 days, but given the current uber volatile character of the market and the recent failure of intraday and/or opening rallies, a close stop is highly recommended [...]

I started scaling in to my short ideas now that we FINALLY had an up day. First set up is FXI, which is on the tip of a bearish rising wedge. A break of current consolidation then 23.30 level would confirm a new bearish intermediate-term trend. The rally we had today had a relative average [...]

Daily directional indicators remain net positive, albeit downward sloping after price failed to pierce the daily floor pivot at SPY $76.07. SPY RSI-2 remains well under one for the third day in a row, as about as extreme as I have ever seen. Reading: MarketSci, Trading in Abnormal Environments Year-to-Date Change: SPY -17%DIA -18%QQQQ -5%IWM [...]

Shown above are 10 minute bars of the NYAD and TICK over 10 days. This is an update to a previous post on using the NYAD and TICK to trade/fade the markets. One thing we can see right away is that rallies have not fared very well for the past 10 days. The fade the [...]

Shorts covered over the weekend in front of the banking news, but no buyers showed up to carry the baton forward, and the gap has closed on strong momentum all the way down to S1 (SPY $76.20). While we are holding that level less a couple dimes just above the Friday lows at the mid-day, [...]

Here’s another snippet of the Qs mean reversion signal I’ve been working on. In much the same manner as the 8/16 moving average crossover this algorithm focuses on the reliability of using the crossover of 2 linear regressions to signal impending reversals of momentum. In coming posts I’ll detail my reasons for favoring linear regression [...]

Keeping TTC on the watchlist for short ideas since it closed under the 61.8 fib level on heavy volume. With enough selling pressure after this bounce in the indexes, TTC could be sliced in half because of very weak support area between 24 and 11. Weak but not an island reversal gap, so it would [...]

Long term, PCLN is a winner. Plenty of overhead resistance, but PCLN outperforms SPY most of the time. It typically forms a long term double bottom, then a cup and handle break out.The long term supporting trend line was broken already last year and I expect it to break it again to form another double [...]

SPX bullish percentage divided by VIX ratio breaking its support line that started since the October’s first trough,Put/Call ratio divided by VIX is still trending down despite the lil bump this week.SPX spread divided by TED spread has broke its supporting trend line since October as well. TED ratio (3 month treasuries divided by 3 [...]

A while back, I posted a “linkfest” from Euan Sinclair’s excellent book, “Volatility Trading.” One of the links was to an eclectic financial time-series analysis and mathematics website maintained by Prof. Peter Ponzo at gummy-stuff.org (yes, you read that correctly). The good Professor’s site is quite literally packed with thought provoking material, including the focus [...]

I’ve been waiting patiently for shorting opportunities. I missed my chance in ADSK,since it broke the supporting trend line, retraced, touched it underneath, then closed down on the day. Now I’m looking to short EPD: And my favorite sector for going long in the past few months is now a great shorting opportunity: As to [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) Last week’s performance looked just like the prior week’s – albeit magnified – leaving the S&P500 (SPY) down -7.5% (note: 5-trading days). In fact, the Financials (XLF) lost a whopping -19.1% on nationalization fears (FT – Fears Rattle Markets; AP – White House Response). Only Precious Metals (DBP) and the [...]