ETF Prophet

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) With all its ups and downs capped off by the most negative GDP report in some thirty years, the mixed week certainly felt worse than it actually was (LA Times – GDP Worst Since 1982). In fact, while the S&P 500 (SPY) closed down -0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 finished modestly [...]

January was a month of great anticipation leading into the New Year and the Presidential Inauguration. However, inaugural balls were soon followed by market falls, as bailout and earnings uncertainties quickly overwhelmed early optimism. This January, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices got off to a rocky start, posting major [...]

First of all, here’s a new thumbnail look at my little 4 ETF basket using line charts of the ETFs and the VIX and overlaid with the new Telechart moving linear regression (7) study (described below). This is a little visual lesson in mean regression theory and is designed to help forecast when the ETF/VIX [...]

Even with GDP coming in ahead of the estimates, the hard truth of the worst decline since the early 1980s was too much for the a.m. trade to handle. And we were still faced with some pretty serious downward momentum from Thursday’s trade. All that said, price found a floor precisely at today’s R2 level [...]

Looks like Barclay’s VXX, a VIX Futures ETN, is up and trading. You can bet I’ll be watching for Bill Luby’s analysis — no doubt already in the works! Meanwhile, here is how it’s looking on the day [UPDATED CHART]. Certainly a good one for tracking tests! And, just for kicks, here is the VXX [...]

Here’s another addition to the new KOP Qs using the inside day system I profiled earlier this month. Not a lot of trades, about 1 every 3 weeks, but the results are pretty impressive, with marginal drawdown. Refer to the original inside day post for system concept details and open code posted as Comment #1. [...]

Yesterday’s action left us technically overbought and vulnerable to today’s jobless claims report. After bouncing twice off the intra-day five-day moving average, we have broken below that and continue to drift lower, now just under S2 (SPY $85.20). The cumulative tick and AD lines remain weak, and so I remain hedged. However, the VIX is [...]

This is part of my continuing upgrading to the BZB Dirty Dozen systems that I mentioned earlier in the week. I’ve decided for now to focus on improving the Qs’ systems, as the IWM based systems are chugging along just fine with their original default settings. The Qs, of course, are a bit more problematic [...]

We are at ten-day S&P 500 highs after this morning’s +2.2% gap higher [SPY], ostensibly on ‘bad bank’ and stimulus plan news. This puts us prospectively within overbought territory with an RSI-2 of 95+ just under the fifty-day moving average. The 50-DMA coincides with today’s second floor trader resistance level of about $86.90, and these [...]

Here’s a free risk map of the NAZ100 via NASDAQ. I find this little tool useful for setting up leaders and laggers for my 3 finger lead and 3 finger reverse systems. Also helpful in creating correlated pair trades, using either one leg or both.

Come on Washington [link] — quit lollygagging and get it done! (P.S. – Comment on ticker candidates for the above… if not I’ll assume they’re all ugly!)

Image via Wikipedia I love to surf around and discover articles by following Alice down the rabbit hole – meaning – start down a path and just keep going.  I was reading an excellent post by Woodshedder over at ibankcoin.com this morning on position sizing.  I think the post and Van Tharp articles (part 1 [...]

The markets are attempting to recapture yesterday’s highs on very strong tick, advancing volume and an increasing level of advancers against a falling VIX (43). However, we are struggling to break the upper bounds above SPY $84.60 and have put in a short series of lower lows. Watch the rising VWAP (about $84.20), then Pivot [...]

One of my readers asked about the relationship of the NYAD, TICK and TRIN per a post back in July 07. This post addresses one way I use the TICK as a confirmation for the NYAD. . .which, of course, is one of my prime directives for both trending and trading range market triggers and [...]

The S&P500 has found support above its broken resistance line of $84.40. This leaves the five-day moving average headed upwards for the first time in about eleven trading days. However, we have some mixed market internals with the VWAP flattened and the Advance-Decline line trailing even as Tick and Advancing Volume continue to increase.

I’m embarking on a streamlining and update of the BZB Dirty Dozen systems. In the process I intend to get back to the focus of my months long exploration (begun May 2008) of using a basket of non-correlated systems (KOP) with a small baskets of ETFs in order to generate a high probability, low exposure [...]

The 3 LRs study (linear regression channels,30,11,3) shows that this week’s action was mostly a consolidation of momentum and volume. The XLFs continue to display weakness relative to the rest of my little basket. Down $.99 for the week and hitting an intraweek low of $ 8.07 on increasing volume, the XLF is currently showing [...]

I’m starting a new feature on the blog – I’ll be reviewing key sectors and the relative strength of each of them.  I’ll be posting this using a new proprietary tool I’ve developed.   This will be represented graphically by this new indicator over the prior 100 days.  I may end up doing 50 days as [...]