ETF Prophet

Here’s a different spin on the GE / Qs trade . . . GE and the NYAD. Those of you who have stuck with me for a while know my strong predictive feelings about the NYAD (on most platforms the symbol is $NYAD. TS makes it a little harder to display, but this is the [...]

While the S&P 500 is down some -1% early this morning, the Russell 2000 is up well over +1%. Looking at the positive tick and advance-decline line, it’s clear so far in the a.m. that money is being put into the broader market at the expense of the large caps: a stealth rally, if you [...]

A nice article in the new November issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities by Jim White. . The Logic of Pivot Trading. Copyrights prevent me from posting the article but check it out at the local Barnes and Noble or Borders for free. What made me laugh out loud when I started to [...]

Adjusted tick remains positive, albeit wending and weaving as price has trended lower. There was also a large supportive volume spike as price took its last dive to yesterday’s lows. This tells me that, although we remain overbought, there may be some level of accumulation occurring “under the hood”. Never Investment Advice 10:35AM PST: Hope [...]

I’ve got to admit a real fondness for these little GE/QQQQ scalps. Since I mentioned the concept last Thursday I’ve received a number of e-mails from other traders who regularly trade the GE/Qs (and other) divergences. It turns out that one of the most profitable traders at a well known Las Vegas prop shop only [...]

So far we are fairly range bound around a flattened VWAP even as the Cumulative Tick and AD lines begin to pick up speed. Positive volume is also outpacing negative. The next few days will be interesting with the Fed announcement today, GDP and Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, and the end of month upon us. [...]

OK, that was interesting. No news but big momo. Betting on the election maybe. New issue of SFO has two articles dealing with likely market reaction to Nov 4th results. Concurrence of both authors: McCain- good for markets, Obama – bad for markets. That, of course is based on their perspective and other market participants [...]

Throughout today’s trade (like every day), I discussed the importance of confirming price trends with the Cumulative Daily Tick (second subpane) and Advance-Decline lines (cyan line/ third subpane). These can be terrific guides, particularly in the wide-ranging directional environment we have been witnessing. The chart below presents how the slope convergence of the two indicators [...]

The large gap up to yesterday’s average price couldn’t hold after hitting R1, putting us back just above the pivot under a declining VWAP. I didn’t “want” to believe it either, but the early turn in the cumulative tick and AD lines were early tells, forcing closure of levered longs entered last night (see prior [...]

Stepping back a little bit to review the Qs in daily, weekly and monthly bars with the 3 linear regression(30,11,3) study. Whether the Qs are destined to mimic other major indices that have already retraced back to mid-2002 levels remains to be seen, but the daily technicals continue to suggest that’s a strong possibility.The LR30 [...]

Nothing happening here. Keep your eyes open for breakouts with a prospective bias to the upside. [Add: Bear in mind Tick & AD line remain negative, however.] 9:55AM PST: Downtrend lines broken, heading to the five-day MAs, a critical test for the day. Adjusted cumulative tick trying to go positive. 11:20AM PST: First attempt over [...]

This post is a continuation of the GE/QQQQ trade post on Thursday.Above the ratio GE and QQQQ chart. That nice horizontal line of the 20 and 50 DSMAs is a clue that this correlated pair trade has good potential. A lot of volatility off the mean to be sure, but for daytraders this is a [...]

(Click to Enlarge)“Click, click, click” goes the stuck needle. Last week the S&P 500 (SPY) gave up its prior weekly gains and then some, finishing down -6.6%. This left the index at fresh lows: down -25% on the month, -39% on the year, and -45% from year-ago highs. Emerging Markets (EEM) were even harder hit, [...]

Weekly pivot update.The absolute R1-S1 range value has remained relatively stable for 3 of the 4 ETFs, although XLE actually declined 37%. The percent range for the upcoming week for the 4 ETFs has evened out at the +/- 20 level suggesting range contraction as the most likely next move.The promising closing alignment of the [...]

We are sitting on “S2″ (SPX 833). Play it by the book today – but with very small size. VIX 88.50? o Global Stocks Fallo Dow Halt Trading Rules Here is an early chart with floor pivot indications. Still above 10/10 lows and back to the range of yesterday’s lows. 8:50AM PST: Adjusted Tick into [...]

We are sitting on “S2″ (SPX 833). Play it by the book today – but with very small size. VIX 88.50? o Global Stocks Fallo Dow Halt Trading Rules