ETF Prophet

Above, the 3 LRS study of the daily bars of my little ETF basket. All looking fairly similar from a technical perspective and all below the lower LR30 channel, despite today’s surge. My guess, and that’s what it is, for the short term, is continued trading range behavior with the lower LR30 channel band acting [...]

The markets are getting their expected bounce. Most measures are maintaining a stable posture, though the slope of the AD line is flatter than I’d like. Also, like yesterday (amazingly), volume appears quite low. The VIX has come in some -12% to 41. 10:05AM PST: Ted Spread jumped to 3.53% at one point today, but [...]

Current Market Statistics: o S&P 500 High October 11, 2007 was 1,579o Today’s Close was 1,106 and changeo Point Difference -473 pointso Percentage Loss -29.96%o Percent Increase Required to Reach prior Highs +42.77%o Twelve Months Duration o Dow High October 9, 2007 was 14,164o Today’s Close was 10,365 and changeo Point Difference -3,799 pointso Percentage [...]

With the NYAD at .05, the VIX at a mind numbing 48 and the DOW off over 700 points, things could get exciting tomorrow. The only thing missing is volume, which surprisingly, is not refelctive of the uber volatility playing out today. Adam had an insightful post today on playing current conditions and it’s worth [...]

With VIX in the high 39′s, the Qs and XLE hitting the weekly S2 within the first hour today and the XLF and IWM at S1, the argument for substantial range expansion this week looks strong. I’ve added several metrics to enable an objective study of the ETFs most likely to mean revert.For those of [...]

Weakness, portended by the Sunday futures, has quickly evolved into a free fall at the open: 7:00AM PST: QQQQ -4.26%; DIA -2.42%; EFA -5.97%; SPY -3.16%; TEDSPD 3.48%; VIX 39.8Breaking News: Massive Coordinated Central Bank InjectionAnnounced Among Nine Global Banks Do you think some of today’s news might have been timed to coincide with agreement [...]

It looks like a case of sell the news with the “subdued reaction to the plan” description being quite the understatement (see article below). As of now, just about everything is trading down a touch (50 to 75 BPs) this Sunday evening in the U.S. futures markets. Asia’s initial pop has also reversed course, in [...]

(Click to Enlarge)In this week’s theatrical version of political “Deal or No Deal?” — equity indices retraced over half of their prior gains as Treasury Secretary Paulson’s TARP plan was thoroughly dissected up on the Hill (Bloomberg – Agreement Near). In spite of the large give-back, the markets were generally able to hold their ground [...]

You may have noticed a few new columns in the Weekly Rewind. This post explains each one for future reference. I like the format that I’ve settled on because it provides a quick view of recent price action both in terms of broad market movement (through the graphs), and relative class behaviour (through the table). [...]

Last week’s study predicted that this week’s pivot range would contract significantly, which is clearly the way it turned out. Had Thursday afternoon’s bailout plan not been torpedoed, I suspect the pivot range might have looked a little different, but this is the way it turned out.I’ve added an orange colored block on the pivot [...]

Fears on RIMM customer acquisition costs rising has the Quad-Qs badly lagging the recovery off of the morning lows (QQQQ -2.2% vs. SPY -1.3%). Price has been relatively stable (though it’s starting to roll), all things considered, but the VIX is rising, and the AD line and adjusted tick are negative, so be careful playing [...]

…Congress. Reportedly, the unexpected federal FDIC take over of WM will leave no value to either shareholders or bondholders. Will taxpayers notice that another $2.5 Billion in market cap has evaporated from their S&P 500 401-K holdings in the morning? The largest bank failure in our history, and the country’s sixth largest lender, I believe. [...]

Tick is looking really good, but I’d like to see the Advance – Decline line show better strength. Amazing day given the economic numbers. CNBC is calling this “The Deal Gets Done Bounce.” The bears are already looking ahead and so am I — so consider trailing stops just in case. On the other hand, [...]

Like most traders, I’m basically hanging out for Friday’s Senate action on the bailout. The market’s managed to stay pretty much in a holding pattern for the past few days as patience is the safer course than valor. However, a lot of blog chatter has touched on Buffett’s bet on GS as a positive endorsement [...]

Our legislators undoubtedly have a very serious fiduciary duty to fulfill, but boy is this thing dragging. They need to learn how to power negotiate. Meet in a moderated forum, ask questions and articulate positions through a selected member, go back to committee with a set time schedule and a battery of experts available in [...]

Many of the “capitulation” indicators remain at extreme levels, indicating an extended period of uncertainty over the traditional interpretation of a singular fear event per se. While a sense that price action could break any moment in either direction remains, to the positive, a momentum divergence continues to establish itself.

Yes, this is data from last September. . . the NYSE use to provide these stats gratis for 2 weeks, but have since revised their policy and now charge between $1500 and $5000/month for a peek under the sheets. Anyone out there with an NYSE access account care to share updated stats, send ‘em along. [...]

The market has felt heavy since the morning pop, as we slowly grind towards the -61.8% Fibonnaci retracement from the Friday highs to Thursday lows. Amazing. It seems that it is indeed going to take some resolution on the Hill to turn this tide in the short-term, and the market has the sense that this [...]