ETF Prophet

This July, the major U.S. equity indices put in a yo-yo performance mirroring volatile energy prices and fresh bank failure fears, later mitigated by significant Federal intervention. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices posted mixed results of -0.99%, +0.25% and +0.66%, respectively. However, these mild month-end results mask the turmoil [...]

We were fairly overbought at yesterday’s close and are currently weaving around the pivot. S1 for the SPY is at $126.85. 11:40AM PST UPDATE: Adjusted Tick is looking bullish. Wish I’d held my WM longer! Nice! 12:25AM PST UPDATE: Price obviously couldn’t follow through on the accumulation that appeared to be occurring. Stopped out. Could [...]

I looked at the CCI indicator in a previous post exploring technical behavior of the VIX:http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/2008/06/vix-and-cci.html Based on yesterday’s RSI system improvement using a conditional MA suggested by Clueless, I decided to test the same concept on the CCI. The results are very impressive and I actually favor the CCI model in lieu of the [...]

R1 is acting as intermediate support on the way back down, but I’m not convinced it will hold (now breaking as I write). Cumulative Tick is turning and the AD line is down trending. Still, an impressive reversal effectively putting in a higher-low on Monday. Will we see a corresponding higher-high by week’s end? Outlook [...]

Clueless suggested adding a 50 MA confirmation condition to my RSI2 popper system.Here are the results for IWM on daily bars, and the results are pretty impressive.The first observation is that the 50MA is not optimum for IWM for long entries. . .that number turns out to be 25. The 50 MA, however, works great [...]

Is there an advantage is what you trade? Or the timeframe you use?Here’s a test comparing DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY and XLE using some of the systems I’ve explored over the past few weeks:RSI and short componentStochastics (STO) and short sideSTORSI and short side816 cross and short sideAll tests cover 500 back bars and the [...]

I won’t be able to post later today. I’m seeing mixed odds on the day; perhaps leaning negative. While I wouldn’t make a large commitment either way, the last several days of the month often have a positive expectancy. The short-term RSI is well below ten. A couple days there often makes for a good [...]

It seems no one wants to get ahead of the various reports coming out this week. Thus far the SPY has found support near S1 ($125/ -0.45%). Cumulative Tick is only getting worse though it looks as though most sectors are trying to recover as Energy (XLE + 1.34%) comes back a bit. Money is [...]

So how’s this for premium? 15% return for 19 days. With WM at 3.90, a simple ATM buy/write on WMHH will get you there. What’s the downside? Well, WM could be the next IndyMac and the stock could go to zero. . .but in the next 19 days? You be the judge.Meanwhile, put premium is [...]

This article was the 2003 DOW Award winner but it’s just as relevant today as then.Tip of the hat to Ron Surz of ppca-inc.com for sharing this nugget.https://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/2003DowAward.pdf

Qs up .68 or 1.5% for the week. DIA down 1.5%, SPY down .4 % and IWM up 2.6%. As predicted last week, the IWM outperformed the Qs (and the other majors) although IWM currently showing short term technical weakness. Approaching the new month bullish mode although the first 2 days of the month surge [...]

Last week’s trading action was characterized by a continuation of the powerful short-covering rally off of the prior week’s lows. The move was led by Financials (XLF +0.6%) as short-sale restrictions went into effect and promises of further government intervention were reiterated. A strong pullback in the Energy complex (XLE -6.8%) was equally responsible for [...]

A quiet low-volume summer day with price holding at the convergence of the 10- and 20-day moving averages, which are actually just about ready to cross (midly bullish). I actually got hit with a nasty little cold a couple days ago. My father-in-law coincidentally asked how much longer the market would be “sick.” Well, there [...]

For comparison purposes with the Clueless20 and the 816 cross, here’s my little RSI cross system looking back 500 bars. Considerable fewer false starts, but as there are no stops the open P/L is a bit frightening.The system works particularly well with the IWM 10 minute and daily bars and, as I favor the IWM [...]

We are in the pullback zone identified yesterday. Note how the tick was positive even as price declined. Neither price nor the AD line was confirming that signal line. I’m lightening up on my TWM (double inverse Russel), but will keep some on hand until/if we see signs of a turn. 12:00PM PST UPDATE: If [...]

Boy, that Clueless!. . . now he wants to add entry conditions to the Clueless 20 system. Okie, dokie little buddy. . .on the way. In the meantime, I ran this little test yesterday before Clueless changed horses and suggested a 8/20 cross based on John Carter (with whom I’m not familiar). I frequently employ [...]

My buddy Clueless mentioned a simple system yesterday that bought the cross above the 20MA and exited on the 20MA cross down (I think that’s what he meant).Since I have a lot of time on my hands I tested the system on my little ETF short list both long and short using the 20 MA [...]

I’ll be unable to post tomorrow (July 23rd) until near the close. Today’s impressive oil induced rally takes the short-term RSI’s up to pretty heady territory. I wonder how much oxygen is up here? Asia is up pretty strong as I write this in the late evening. Have a good day. P.S. Happy Birthday Little [...]