ETF Prophet

A real roller coaster big volume day featuring a hairy bottom, a hairy top, another hairy bottom and a gap fade proxy at 14:45. I hope you kept you eye on the NYAD if you were tempted to join the rally. . . it was a pretty good tell that buying was muted and probably [...]

Thanks for your 5,000 visits to this blog. I hope you continue to find it a useful summary of daily and monthly market conditions with an occasional technical study thrown in for added value. I know I find it helpful “self-talk” during the course of the day and have appreciated your kind notes.

I count this as a narrow range day with a negative bias.The Qs showed little enthusiasm to rally off the PP pivot and the fact that neither R1 or S1 were touched (until the last bar) reflects the level of ambivalence and indecision in the markets. The fact that it happened on relatively low volume [...]

This June, the major U.S. equity indices swooned heavily as oil bubbled ever higher and financial sector woes returned to the fore. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices recorded monthly losses of -8.60%, -10.19% and -9.62%, respectively; their worst monthly showing in six years. Indeed, the Dow’s 1,288 point drop [...]

We’ve got a small bounce up to R1 on this final day of the quarter and end to the first half (say SPY $128.85). We are pausing at this level as oil decides whether or not to continue to cooperate. Cumulative Tick is positive, but not overwhelmingly strong with the A-D line essentially flat. By [...]

Stepping back to look at monthly bars of the 3LRs study provides a little clearer picture of what’s been happening and what’s possible in the near term. In #1 position, my little friend the Qs. If they break through that lower LR30 channel, a kiss the channel goodbye pattern is the most probable outcome (see [...]

Qs weekly update of 3 linear regression (30,11,3) study of daily and weekly bars.For the week, Qs down 1.77 0r 3.74%. DIA down 3.91%, IWM down 3.95%, SPY down 3%.We got the market rollover suggested by last week’s technical review and, unfortunately, the technical big picture suggests the same downside support levels are vulnerable.Although the [...]

They tried to take it down twice — but have stabilized more or less around a flattened VWAP. Cumulative Tick and the A-D line continue to suggest some caution. That said, I believe we are near a short-term bottom. That was a real throw away yesterday. Bounces so far this month have been anemic at [...]

I noticed this situation at closing today on the 60 minute bars and I thought it worth mentioning.This is one of the trading chart setups that I use with the RSI2, Stochastics 10,3,3 and StochRSI 12,2,3 (a blend of the RSI and STO) which Schwab offers although most platforms do not.Now the interesting thing to [...]

On a lighter note on this big down day, below are a few of the promised cross-country family move photos from earlier in the month. Could that big fuzzy brown fellow with the large teeth and claws have been a harbinger of things to come? We ran into him in Yellowstone — apparently he was [...]

Ouch. I started buying when Tick didn’t show the same weakness exhibited by price. Several items in the mix today, from analyst downgrades, softened tech outlooks, and an oil spike — but really it seems there just aren’t any buyers out there. Certainly a stronger than usual post-fed hang-over. Could be a good trade, but [...]

Price has flattened out ahead of the Fed announcement, but take a look at the AD line and cumulative tick, still moving higher. Be ready for the noise in about 2 hours.

I mentioned the Hairy Top (and bottom) formations before, and noticed a picture perfect example on Monday’s open. I’ve shown both the 2 and 5 minute bars to demonstrate the fractal nature of the pattern but the 5 minute chart is the most dramatic.If you’ve followed me for a while you know I like to [...]

Not huge as a percentage gain, but we’ve seen a nice reversal on the day. We remain over-sold and cumulative tick is just now picking up some steam. The prior stars, tech and small-caps, are still lagging a bit. 11:25AM PST UPDATE: Bit of resistance at the declining five-day moving average. It would be nice [...]

In a ongoing effort to examine the VIX, I ran a CCI version of the RSI popper 2 system. The CCI is also an oscillator, but with somewhat different parameters than the RSI. Also, I tested weekly bars rather than daily since I was looking for indications of the trend rather than day to day [...]

Above is a snipit from a recent Bespoke post. Not exactly cheery and indicative of a growing mood and tactical approach to the markets. Check out the full article for implications of a potential short covering rally. And then there’s this. I know I said I’d never post on the VIX again, but being old [...]

Coming into the day, the 2-Day RSI reads [edit] just under ten. I’m getting my toes wet and will become incrementally aggressive with any further pull-back. 9:55AM PST UPDATE: A shallow bowl formation has thus far bottomed out at Friday’s lows. Cumulative Tick and the VWAP remain negative, however. I’ll probably wait until day-end to [...]

As Rob Hanna pointed out, Thursday was a bit of a lame reversal and we were hit hard on Friday. I’m sure expiration didn’t help — though I had expected quite the opposite. Nonetheless, it felt like overkill based on the news, but statistically Monday has a downside edge in spite of it all. Maybe [...]