ETF Prophet

It was another good month across all three published strategies – you’ll find the individual strategies pages (MOMO1, TREND1, MR1) have updated equity curves, statistics and current holdings.  But as will be the norm going forward, I’ll update the monthly performance here. MOMO1: Return for May-08: 11.5% (does not include dividends or commission charges) Return [...]

Here’s Trading Day’s spin on the Qs’ prognosis. Good site, good tools and free. Above, 3 linear regression studies (30,11,3) on weekly and monthly update bars.For the week, Qs down .45 or 1%, DIA flat, SPY down 1%, IWM down .5%The Qs have flatlined on the weekly bars for the past month, with a slight [...]

This May, the major U.S. equity indices showed mixed results as commodities roared higher. Large-Cap technology was once again the clear leader with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices posting monthly changes of +1.07%, -1.42% and +5.99%, respectively. Although the mood on the street was generally positive throughout the month [...]

OK, not the first time I’ve posted with that heading. Looks like the three days of gains have sapped some juice from the day, with the exception of tech, which is showing the most strength along with the transports. Cumulative Tick is slightly negative on the day, but positively sloping as of this writing. I’d [...]

An interesting indicator divergence today that’s worth a closer look (2 minute bars).I like to watch the carry over from the previous day’s close on the 10 and 20 MAs on 5 minute bars. This is typically a good indicator of whether the short term trend will continue or whether a pivot high, pivot low [...]

Well, that was quick – just a single day holding period on XLB and we’re outta there.  Bought at 43.63, sold at 44.43 (both at the open) for a return of 1.83% (not including commissions).

Who knew… mostly I’m ticked that my longs got shook out by the dip when oil first reacted to the supply reduction news. Impressive follow through buying strength going into the end of the month. Cumulative Tick is looking very good, but keep a close eye on it. I’ve hedged a bit for my long-term [...]

I don’t want to overlook the indicative power of the RSI2 for the Qs. Here’s the daily study of the Qs looking back 5 years based on the same TS code as the Tuesday IWM RSI post. The settings are optimized to 2,28,80,28,80 possibly reflecting the variance in beta between the IWM and the Qs. [...]

I read a lot of economic blogs, mainly because I find the subject interesting.  But I ignore them in terms of my trading/investing.  Why?  Because most of the time, sadly, their reporting is not actionable.  It can range from interesting information to paranoia – particularly on certain websites such as Bill Cara’s website.  Now I [...]

MR1 cashed out of IBB this morning and took a position with XLB which was bought at the open.  IBB gained 1.08% on the position (including commission) – so not great, not bad.  XLF continues to be held as well, with the position continuing to be in the red.

Now that we are back above the VWAP and Tick is upward sloping, I anticipate this recovery will hold into this close as long as oil holds pat. I know, pretty big qualifier, keep an eye on USO. 1:25PM CST UPDATE: Well, it’s not happening… you guessed it… oil. I find the divergences between USO [...]

A classic easy money gap fade on the Qs this morning. (2 minute chart above)Qs open 49.28, up .23 from previous close and hit R1.I always watch 9:35–9:45 as a time pivot, looking for signal reversal and possible weakness.9:38 the Qs penetrate R1 again, but fail to close above that level.9:40 – a reversal bar [...]

Sorry for the late post — as it turns out — not much has changed since Friday. We got a little bit of a bid at the open that quickly turned around with the latest economic stats. Funny how Yahoo! Finance started out with a positive take on housing, and moments later changed the headlines [...]

In response to a number of bloggers‘ interest in the RSI as a system trading tool, I offer the following case study of the IWM, which I have found to be unusually responsive to RSI signals. These results reflect daily bars over the past 3 years and as discussed last week, it will be interesting [...]

This is what is important to remember on Memorial Day: (Image courtesy of Mother Jones) I’m completely against the War in Iraq and this is one reason why – putting our honorable military people in harms way for what I believe is a useless war.  But regardless of how I feel about the war, we [...]

Know What’s in Your ETF and How the ETF is Calculated : Trader Mike Mike looks at the DUG ETF and why it’s been acting so funny. World Beta – Engineering Targeted Returns and Risk: Rebounding World Beta takes a look at investing in stocks/ETFs that are down for a given month and presents a [...]

IBDIndex continues the RSI(2) testing…..at this rate, the combination of bloggers working on this will be able to publish our own research paper on the strategy.

Above, the 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) of the daily and weekly bars.For the week the Qs were down 1.81 or 3.6%, almost a perfect reversal of the previous week’s gain. The markets are now moving lockstep with both DIA and SPY showing almost identical % declines this week.My decision at the last update to [...]