ETF Prophet

This April brought shelter from the recent financial storms with the major U.S. equity indices posting their first across-the-board gains since last October. Once again, Large-Cap technology led the charge with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices posting monthly changes of +4.76%, +4.54% and +7.62%, respectively. After monster gains recorded [...]

A slightly higher than expected first quarter GDP reading set us up for more positive momentum. Get ready for the Fed noise trade if you’re fast enough. Again, short of a bizarre statement, I’d expect a resolution to the upside, though too much of a move will likely get sold later in the week as [...]

Some very interesting articles in this month’s SFO highlighting the nuances of trend trading versus range trading. The always fascinating George Pruitt also offers some critical perspectives on trend system trading. George is research director for Futures Truth magazine, a must read for systems traders and developers. Check out their top 10 lists (free) on [...]

Another sub par volume day, although the Qs (NDX) were the bright spot relative to the other major indices (DIA,IWM, & SPY). Tomorrow should tell the tale whether the NDX divergence in strength has some legs.The NYAD was not very enthusiastic, although the 10/20 did flash a bullish cross at 12:00.Only one trade today at [...]

Sort of a bizarre split market today, small caps are down over a percent while large cap tech is up almost 50bps+. The energy and commodities complexes are pulling back too, which is hurting yours truly more than I’d like. It may be time to start lightening up there, or raising stops… but a day [...]

REALLY low volume today (lowest of the year) and a price collapse into the last 30 minutes doesn’t bode well for Tuesday’s open, but HEY!, anything can happen and hope springs eternal. WWY (Wrigley) blew the doors off today after it’s rumored Bush told reporters questioning his economic policy “Let them chew gum”, an apparent [...]

A little late to post today, and probably will be tomorrow too with other business. It has been a steady grind higher even as the talking heads have commented on a go nowhere market. I suppose when you don’t have any skin in the game it’s easy to make comments like those. Mostly I think [...]

Above is the daily, weekly, monthly 3 LRs study of the Qs (30,11,3).With the Qs up .44 for the week, all time frames are now displaying positive momentum.This week’s daily action managed to close above the LR30 mean on each day, reflecting the upward bias. Even Microsoft’s Friday swoon failed to drive the Qs below [...]

MSFT’s poor showing after the close Thursday was a dead weight on today’s open. I suspect there were more than a few traders surprised, but yesterday’s suspiciously weak close suggests some big money was in the know. MSFT actually traded more shares than the Qs today (145M/122M) and closed poorly, though off the lows of [...]

The market couldn’t break higher after the overnight recovery and so they took it down for a sharp bounce back off the five-day moving average. Be careful though, it’s Friday and the VWAP continues to decline. Most sectors are now going sideways. Maybe we see a sideways to negative trade ahead of Fed -1, then [...]

Well, my futures program went down just as I tried to buy into that morning dip. I can’t complain too much… I could have been stuck in a bad trade and at least I caught the overnight run down and up… Cumulative tick is picking up and everything is looking good except for my diversified [...]

After Tuesday’s post on the DBA, I though it might be interesting to look at the DBC, which is more of a pure commodity play.In recent days the food crisis situation has gotten legs as the feature story on the evening news and in the media everywhere. Rice shortage is currently the hot button as [...]

Las Vegas motto Here are a few indications of what’s going on in one of 2007′s hot sectors. Even the internationally diversified gaming companies are showing the pain. With over 60 new hotel/casinos currently under construction in Las Vegas, including the $ 8 billion City Center project, the prospects for the gaming sector don’t look [...]

We are back to neutral here at the mid-day, giving a slight test to the rising (but flattend) VWAP. We are seeing just a slight pull-back as energy picks back up here.

With a looming world food crisis, DBA might be worth a look as a tactical play on a scenario that will probably get worse before it gets better. Food riots last week in Haiti, where some of the population have resorted to eating “cookies” made from dirt, vegetable oil and salt while other food riots [...]

We are getting the pullback I have been discussing and it’s deepening by the minute. I wouldn’t have guessed it would trail this far, but the prospect of $120/barrel oil is weighing. Cumulative tick is very negative — I’d hold on to those shorts. Maybe we’ll see some support around SPY $136.50 to $137.00 [Google [...]

Welcome to the lowest volume Qs day this year. Clearly a lot of cash on the sidelines awaiting AAPL and MSFT to report(and others). With overbought signals flashing all over the place, traders appear to favor caution in lieu of valor before jumping into the fray. The NYAD was asleep all day, with the exception [...]

So far price is holding up pretty well just under the pivot in the face of a midly negative cumulative Tick. Tech and large caps are providing the support. Keep an eye on the VWAP and relative bond strength for any changes. I still think the shorts have a bit of an edge here if [...]