ETF Prophet

Another narrow range day with volume continuing for the 7th day below the 10DSMA. The Qs just couldn’t get traction off the PP pivot and failed to hit either R1 or S1. . . a definite sign of trader caution.NYAD action was equally tepid and narrow range after the morning pop.TICK behavior was a bit [...]

This March, U.S. equity indices posted mixed results topping off their largest quarterly losses since the third quarter of 2002. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices recorded monthly changes of -0.60%, -0.03% and +2.10%, respectively. As the deleveraging saga continued to unfold, some of the month’s worst days occurred early-on [...]

My friend Dr. Carl Wyman sent me the following link http://www.inspectd.com/. It’s a neat little trading simulator with a few programmable variables that may quickly become an addictive past time.

This move seems well supported internally. Come on shorts, cover! Check back after the close for the monthly “rewind”. How does “Margin Madness” sound as a header?

Click on charts to enlarge.Above is the updated daily, weekly, monthly bar 3 linear regression (30,11,3) study.After the Monday breakout from the upper LR30 channel, the Qs spent the rest of the week pulling back to close with a modest gain of +.40 for the week (DIA and SPY finished neg for the week; IWM [...]

The lower open anticipated by yesterday’s pre close 10/20 5M bar MA cross failed to materialize this morning (one benefit of focusing on intraday trades), but after a sluggish rise to R1 in the first 30 minutes, it was all downhill. On the plus side, the lost for the day was a modest .08, thereby [...]

There is a slight downward drift and resistance at the falling VWAP on the day inspite of the postive A-D line and tick action. Right now there is significant volume spike occuring, we’ll see whether that is buying or selling shortly. Notice above how the SPY is sandwiched between the falling 50-day and flattened 20-day [...]

We got the downside follow through we were expecting as a result of yesterday’s late 10/20 MA cross.. With another 10/20 5 minute bar MA cross going into the close today , odds of a continued decline tomorrow are increased. The behavior of the 5 minute 10/20 MAs going into the close has been a [...]

Above are the daily charts of the QQQQ and the QQQQ/BXN, which reveal some interesting divergences between the price of the underlying and the performance of a buy/write strategy. Above is the daily chart of the BXN, displaying the sudden and sustained drop in performance since the late December peak. Although the chart mirrors the [...]

The Cumulative Tick is running quite strong as the market’s attempt to stabilize off of the weak economic news and poorly received Oracle results. We have made a fairly extended run to the five-day moving average + R1 on the SPY, which may be potential resistance. That early morning move down had me concerned, but [...]

Another sub par volume, narrow range day. Weakness prevailed from the open with a little low volume pop in the afternoon session, but the PP pivot band resistance contained it. On the daily bars (top chart) the Qs are coming off an overbought condition and, fundamentals not withstanding, are most likely to continue down for [...]

A follow through from yesterday’s end-of-day pullback remains underway, albeit mild in magnitude thus far. Price is trying to break back through the five-day MAs, which remain positively sloped. Also, the cumulative tick has just gone positive. I think this is just some backing and filling as we head into the end of quarter. Please [...]

The fade setup at 9:50 was a picture perfect example of how I scalp the open.I typically look for a reversal on the 2 minute bars between 6:38 and 6:48. I’m not going to post the TradeStation studies I’ve run to confirm this time frame, or try and explain why this little window of time [...]

Although the market is running flat here and the VWAP is slightly negatively sloped, the Cumulative Tick and A-D lines are slowly headed northward. We have two opposing signals, one medium-term long-biased, and one short-term short-biased. I will be writting about these more later today. This has clearly been a very nice move off of [...]

A uniformly strong day today, with increasing volume the only missing component. Overnight the NDQ were smoking so the open at R1 was expected. Carrying over Thursday’s strong close, there was no morning fade, and hence, no signal to short. the Qs continued on a tear until 12:45 and an R5 reading. . . a [...]

Sorry gang, I’m out again today. Two very big back-to-back days here, look to hedge again soon. Back tomorrow at the mid-day.

Above is the 3LRs study of the Qs (see sidebar for chart indicator details if new to the blog). The daily chart continues to display a lateral consolidation pattern, with the Qs currently locked on the LR30 mean. The channel has served us well for the past 8 weeks, identifying the relatively narrow band of [...]

A strong day with basically no fade into the close. . . surprising for a long weekend and perhaps indicative of a short term trend change. The 5 minute 20 SMA showed the way all day, and especially for the afternoon session when I was expecting a weekend fade. It’s proven to be a great [...]