ETF Prophet

The Qs took it in the shorts today, ostensibly driven by the Dell-saster reports. While it surged up out of the gate along with the rest of the market based on some old guy’s off the cuff remarks, there was clear resistance at R2, and little inclination for the market to repeat Tuesday’s R2 to [...]

The current Trader Monthly features several interesting articles. Johnny Chan’s poker stories are always illuminating and a little piece by Doug Hirschhorn is extremely timely. An excerpt follows:You don’t need another software package. You don’t need another computer. What you do need is to keep the game simple (up, down, sideways) and get comfortable with [...]

For those of you who missed it, do yourself a favor and check out Dr. Brett’s reality check for struggling traders. If nothing else let his post remind all of us that trading is a tough business where you will learn more about yourself, your strengths and your weaknesses, than 10 years of psychoanalysis could [...]

A narrow range day for the Qs as it modulated PP to R1 for the day, closing on atypical meek volume and no clear momentum. Although the Qs closed above yesterday’s high, the fact that it couldn’t quite get through the R1 resistance on 2 attempts was suspicious. I was sorely tempted to sell some [...]

I will be traveling today and tomorrow on business. Constructive day. It will be interesting to see what Mr. B has to say tonight. Stay tuned next week for the promised VWAP study and an update on the Sentiment Measure. Best, Jeff PM UPDATE: I noticed this evening that a good number of fellow ‘bloggers’ [...]

Top chart is the daily. . .lower chart is the 5 minute. We got the break I was musing about yesterday, and in a big way. Today we had the biggest 2 day rally in 4 years, and on solid volume. Things must be (really) good! And this is based on expectations that the Fed [...]

Compare and contrast today’s Fed official statements with yesterday’s: Today (WSJ) – Though a repricing of risk “is not surprising or unwelcome,” [Vice Chair]… Kohn noted that wider credit spreads and tighter credit standards “would make some types of credit more expensive and discourage some spending, developments that would require offsetting policy actions, other things [...]

Qs came alive today on pretty good volume. after a little head fake at 7:00 the Qs surged right up to R1, which became the resistance ceiling for the rest of the day. The downdraft at 14:00 looked like we might see an R1 to S1 day, but that PP pivot held and the Qs [...]

After reviewing recent price action, including yesterday’s institutional throw away at the close, and contrary to my last remark, I am now more convinced that we are close to a near-term low here that will be buyable going into the new month. Most compelling, I had very few stock pull back buy signals today, indicating [...]

The top chart is the Qs weekly with the 3 linear regression indicators. The LR30 lower channel break is now looking imminent. The lower chart is the daily and shows the surge from Friday carried through for the first 30 minutes and lifted the Qs to the R2 pivot. From there it was all downhill. [...]

Here is a look at the various windows and indicators I track over the course of a day. Other indicators are more end-of-day in nature: more on these in later posts. I have another window that provides a view of various time frames as well. What do you track intra-day? Interesting news on retail sales [...]

As I mentioned yesterday . . low volume . . so I wouldn’t be high fiving the bulls just yet. Daily Qs volume has been running in the 300M range, so today’s 45M blip was the lowest volume day since July 3. Once the Qs broke from the pivot at 11:00, it was all uphill, [...]

The Qs crumbled at the open and then proceeded down to the S1 pivot in the first 90 minutes. Once that level held, a return to the PP base pivot looked like a good bet and sure enough, 2 hours later we hit it on rather anemic volume. As with most of the pivot turns [...]

A wild ride today as the Qs made a complete R2 to S2 cycle intraday. We don’t get a lot of those. And to top off the day’s action, the Qs closed right back at the PP pivot where they popped out of the gate. The FOMC provided the catalyst for the volatility. . .the [...]

Light posting during Thanksgiving week at the in-laws. I think Citigroup (C) should get the Turkey-of the-Year Award for gobbling up more than its fair share of the news cycle this year. At down 40% on the year and 8% this month alone, it has certainly done wonders for the Dow, yesterday being only the [...]

The open and the 14:00 turn were both somewhat encouraging for the longs, but the overall negative momentum of the market just dragged everything down with it. The financials, of course, looked horrible. Amazing how that burst of buying enthusiasm last week (co-incidental with expiration) quickly evaporated today based on “worry about the banking sector”. [...]

Topside is the weekly 3 linear regressions chart. The lower channel band has held so far, with this week producing a questionable doji pattern. If the Qs turn down at this point and head south through the lower channel, the retracement may run down to 44, a long ways off. Historically, of course, we are [...]

A typical expiration day, punctuated by a number of quick high volume moves as the big dogs tried to finesse pins strategies. The initial fade was impressive before a 2 hour recovery into the noon hour. Traders got conservative into the afternoon session, consolidating at the PP pivot and waiting the later afternoon break, which [...]