ETF Prophet

This October, a good deal of daily market movement involved speculation regarding the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate reductions. Once again, the Fed moved to the beat of the market and met expectations with a quarter point reduction in both the discount window and federal funds rates. At 4.5%, the funds rate now stands [...]

The Qs came out of the gate mildly bullish above the PP and hugged the R1 pivot for the 4 hours preceding the FOMC announcement. In typical FOMC fashion, market volatility picked up just prior to the news (unfortunately, you can never be sure which way it’s going to go), selling down hard on increasing [...]

Dr. Brett posted a nice study today of pivot points and S&P behavior. I frankly avoid SPY and it multitude of proxies, much preferring the Qs and IWM because of the spreads, volatility and options in pennies. It’s been my experience that both the Qs and IWM respond to the pivots much like magnets, with [...]

Recognizing that my last post was somewhat controversial based on seekingalpha.com commentary, here is a follow up article reporting how the hypothetical China Rebalancing Pairs Trade would have performed through yesterday’s close: a) since posted on the morning of October 11th; and, b) since the FXI’s short-term moving average first reversed. a) Since Posted (10/11)- [...]

This post is a continuation of How I Trade, begun on Saturday. The Qs gapped up at the open today, repeating Friday’s jump. The difference today was that we got a trap door set up. I have included an great annotated chart of the “trap door” (lower chart) which I “borrowed” from cucca. The top [...]

For this week’s update I’ve attached both weekly and daily linear regression charts. The 30LR weekly chart shows the Qs bumping off the upper channel, with a likely man reversion to the 52 area. The 30LR daily chart shows the opposite picture, with the Qs bouncing off the lower channel, suggesting a mean reversion in [...]

The Qs got a boost Friday, thanks largely to MSFT stellar earnings. The overnight futures told of the coming pop, and the real question was . . .should I fade the open or wait for the classic trap door set up. If not familiar with the trap door, mosey over the cucca’s site and browse [...]

Here’s a nifty little free tool from Schaeffers Research. Just enter the ticker symbol and get a historical perspective on the SOIR, including ratio and rank. Direct link to chart included.

The Qs deteriorated today, retreating back to the lower leg of the 30 day linear regression channel. The Qs have been in a lateral channel for the past 15 days on building volume. the break will probably be dramatic (maybe earnings driven?). The other major indices have already broken through the lower leg of the [...]

Smart Money provides this neat little free tool for determining fair value. A few discretionary inputs enable adjustment of your risk assessment or you can just let the calculator use its internal database for a default evaluation.

Here’s the NASDAQ closing ETF heatmap, suggesting which sectors may continue recovering tomorrow. For most of the day the map was uniformly red. The early money was made in the ultra short ETFs (not shown) . EOD traders missed all the fun today as evidenced by the size of the daily bar tail. The Qs [...]

I’ve attached a photo of my gentle family as we prepared to evacuate in the face of the local wildfires. For those who have missed my kinship link with Jethro, just go the far, lower right portion of this blog and click “musical interlude”. Around here they have reverse 911 service. . if they want [...]

When I say smoking, I’m not exactly talking about the Qs, although they did put on a good show today. The better (and scarier) show was to look South out my bedroom window at the sky this morning,, engulfed horizon to horizon with a sickly yellow, brown smoke extendng up 20,000 feet or so. Here [...]

Zack’s provides a variety of free info on earnings, including earnings surprises, a calendar of earnings reports and a earnings info lookup by symbol. They also have a premium (fee) service with more sophisticated info and tools.

The Qs were holding their own going into Friday when the bottom fell out. We are now seeing some cause for concern looking at the linear regression chart above (click to view clearly). If the Qs break through the bottom of the channel at 52 then we can expect more downside action to follow. For [...]

If you subscribe to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, you can access a trading system analyzer that yields respectable returns using fairly rudimentary systems. While the systems are not applicable to all stocks and ETFs, TASC provides a ranking of the best performers for the various systems. One way to take advantage of these [...]

The Qs went into freefall right out of the gate, dropping 1.00 in the first 90 minutes. After that, it was touch and go at S2, until it finally fell through the bottom in the last 1/2 hour. The Qs are now sitting at the 20 DMSA, a critical support level. The linear regression channel [...]

Mid-day update and not one heatmap ETF in the green. Market weakness is pervasive and virulent. The NYAD remains locked at S1 (.25) and shows little inclination to budge. Careful on bottomfishing at this level.