ETF Prophet

My Qs end of quarter (EOQ) study concludes with this snapshot of weekly performance for 2002-2006. The data field is limited to only 5 years so I am reluctant to bet the farm on the results, but certain patterns do pop out here:1. The week before EOQ3 has been consistently negative 02-06.This year is different.2. [...]

This chart is a continuation of the study begun today. My goal was to look at how select ETFs perform 1 month after each quarter and to discern if there were any seasonal patterns revealed that might provide a trading edge. The initial study posted this morning suggested that October might be a good time [...]

A piece by Bespoke on S&P behavior at quarter’s end got me thinking. . . so I ran a somewhat similar study for the Qs. I’ve highlighted third quarter results just because that’s where the action currently resides. I’ve also modified the study a little bit from the Bespoke version: whereas they looked at performance [...]

The markets failed to follow through today, as was widely anticipated. We need to see a reversal, or at least a consolidation of recent September gains before blasting off in to the traditional power months of October-January. Also as expected, the Qs showed considerable resilience relative to the other indexes, especially into the close, and [...]

Below are monthly support and resistance pivots for October. Currently, the selected indices each sit just North of their respective pivots going into the new month, as follows: S&P 500/ GSPC (SPY)-Close: 1,526.75Resistance: 1,542Pivot: 1,503Support: 1,463 Dow Jones Industrials/ DJI (DIA)-Close: 13,895.63Resistance: 14,023Pivot: 13,641Support: 13,241 Nasdaq 100/ NDX (QQQQ)-Close: 2,091.11Resistance: 2,114Pivot: 2,049Support: 1,980

This September, equities logged their best monthly performance since April, and their best September since 1998. Once again, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve came to to our “emotional rescue” with a surprise 50 b.p. reduction in the Federal Funds Rate. The markets haven’t looked back since (the Nasdaq 100 in particular), and once again [...]

Dr.Brett is off to the land of kangaroos, dingos, great whites, Mad Max, Steve Irwin and other cool stuff to help our Aussie brethren in their quest for trading success. There certainty can be no better ambassador for the cause and I enthusiastically support his efforts to share the wealth of information and inspiration which [...]

The FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index is up over 63% year-to-date and 21% month-to-date. Just as the index ascends new heights, I am seeing a disproportionate number of China ADR short setups. Where will the index head next? It is usually a very, very bad idea to fight such massive momentum. In addition, the country’s long-term [...]

Today’s action looked an awful lot like yesterday. The activity was a bit more subdued and the volume somewhat restrained, but both the TICK and the NYAD actually looked more bullish today than yesterday. For the last 5 hours of the day the VIX, NYAD and TICK were in sync. The financials (XLF) look like [...]

Just remember gentle readers. . .you read it here first!. Apparently the Wall Street Journal was so inspired by my comments about the Qs that they wrote a feature article about it. Unfortunately, the WSJ site is subscription based, but if you have an account, read away. They Qs gapped up at the Open, made [...]

The Qs continue to show strength while the rest of the market wallows in worry and is in fact up .07 after hours on solid volume. That’s probably due to at least 2 factors: 1) The Qs have no financial (except net banking), home building or retail merchandising exposure. 2) Microsoft has been on a [...]

My wife and I always enjoy the Del Mar racetrack and we generally manage to at least break even based on a betting system my wife has developed that places little emphasis on the horses and great emphasis on the jockeys. I have learned that being clever with your betting seldom pans out, so I [...]

Today’s Qs and VIX performance were pretty much mirror images of Friday in reverse. The Qs continue to look overbought and the VIX looks oversold as it continues to hug the declining(and expanding lower band. Some strange behavior on the VIX today at 11:20 when we got a .50 gap down in 2 minutes, with [...]

One of the things I do during the typical trading day is backtest various EOD trading ideas on TradeStation to refine my swing trading strategy and tactics. Some of the most profitable and robust systems are fairly rudimentary. Here are the results and code for a simple CCI support/resistance system for the Qs that’s profitable [...]

A new reader asked me, “why the ‘rear-view mirror’ tag line?” Well, it’s a little nod to my prior life in the consulting business, where we joked that 80% of our reports constituted “rear window watching.” The second half of the joke was that we “charged by the pound,” so the more rear window watching [...]

Qs followed through to the up side, contradicting yesterday’s technical signals. The VIX had a 7% day, continuing to hug the lower band while simultaneously maintaining a 15% gap below the converged 10 and 20 DSMAs. I was frankly surprised and caught a bit off guard by today’s strength, since the TICK readings and a [...]

Qs gave back a little today, but not without a fight. Technicals (especially RSI) point to further declines. First stop is 49th parallel. Historically, September closes poorly (Stock Traders Almanac) with 13 out of the last 16 years posting negative readings for the week following triple witching. Statistical odds favoring the long side pick up [...]

We are getting RSI signal confirmation between the Qs and the VIX suggesting the markets may fade the Friday expiration. As expected, the Qs did carry through with a pop at the open and then faded down for the rest of the day. Dr. Brett has a different spin on current conditions and makes the [...]