ETF Prophet

It was a struggle, but the Qs hit our 49 target, before a modest anticipated retreat prior to the long weekend. It was a solid day, although the volume was a bit subdued. The Qs closed with a doji and have now flashed a 10/20 DSMA buy cross on a rising +.5 MACD. This signal [...]

I’ve mentioned the Almanac several times in recent posts and received several e-mails from folks not familiar with it. Published annually for the past 40 years, the almanac provides a wide variety of statistical probability studies of seasonal, daily, hourly, etc. trading patterns on the SP500, Dow and Nasdaq. The typical day in the market [...]

The curse of Thursday before Labor Day lives, but not for the Qs. Almost everything else was down . . energy, financials, gold, retail, housing, the DOW, the SP500, the IWM, but both the COMPX and the Qs (and SMH) managed to close in the green. Given today’s overall negative market tone, the Qs are [...]

The markets did a complete about face today, performing absolutely the inverse of yesterday. Buying started strong out of the gate and never wavered for the rest of the day, closing just pennies off the high. It will be interesting to see if the market can hold at this level and avoid the curse of [...]

Qs volume picked up today, but few buyers appeared as the Qs retreated from the 50 DSMA to the 10 DSMA in a pervasive selloff. Both the volume and the selling accelerated into the last 2 hours, turning parabolic for the last 30 minutes and I don’t think it’s over yet. Both the RSI and [...]

The Qs gave up some ground today, bouncing off the overbought 50 DSMA and doing so on the lowest volume in 6 weeks. 6% of the Qs total daily volume traded (down) in the last 10 minutes of the day and the selling can be expected to carry over into Tuesday. As expected, the VIX [...]

The Qs showed surprising strength today, climbing to close at the daily high and at intermediate resistance. The Qs also closed at the 50 DSMA, a new 12 day high and at the MACD zero line. The fact that this was accomplished on the lowest volume in 30 days (88M) is not the only cause [...]

The BAC move to prop up CFC had only an overnight impact as the pop fizzled at the Open. Woe to the after hours traders who paid up to a $5 premium on yesterday’s CFC close in anticipation of a bigger pop today. The perception of a looming major financial crisis was evident today with [...]

The Qs extended their gains today, still showing greater strength than the DOW, but accomplishing it on the second lowest volume in the past three weeks. The Qs are at the 20 DSMA. This is the 4th day up and the Qs are tickling the overbought band. After hours the globex is way up, presumably [...]

The Qs edged up to hit the 10DSMA today, unfortunately on lower volume than yesterday. The Qs did show more strength than the DOW, riding the whole afternoon session between R1 and R2 and closing strongly, again with none of the typical closing volume surge. The TICK was interesting today ….. after running upslope 2 [...]

For those who prefer the excitement of playing gaps, Bespoke conducted an interesting little study on Friday’s gap behavior that’s worth a look.Gap studies seem to have become very popular lately.Here are a few recent print articles on the topic:June 2007 Active Trader magazine: One Day Jumps – by David BukeyAugust 2007 Active Trader: Opening [...]

The Qs showed a doji today and the VIX had a wide range close low bar at the 10 DSMA. The RSI and MACD readings of the Qs suggest continued movement towards the 10 DSMA. As mentioned previously, that goal is a pretty good bet. After that…. the games afoot. Volume was considerably subdued, the [...]

The above picture is, of course, Norman Rockwell’s Facts of Life. Here are a few of them that you ought to be aware of based on Thursday’s exciting trading activity. NYSE Closing SummaryTrade Date 8/16/2007Number of Issues….. 3,591Advance-Decline Ratio…. 0.6NYSE Trades ….8,908,020NYSE Volume….2,989,836,240NYSE Dollar Volume ….115,188,118,914 Retail Buy Trades ….152,848Retail Sell Trades ….204,524Total Retail Trades [...]

Amazing how quickly this market turns … in large part thanks to the overnight FED intervention to lower loan rates .5 percent. And they decide to do it on options expiration. What a coincidence! All the trading gurus that proclaimed Thursday the bottom are now high-fiving and yucking it up. Enjoy it while it lasts.The [...]

The Qs sailed right through the 200 DSMA at the open (45.40), continuing down to 44.40 before showing a 5 minute bar hairy bottom at 10 (pst), finding a tenuous base and cycling up to finish at 45.62. The 1.52 daily range and the huge volume (362M) only begin to hint at the wild ride [...]

The Qs continue to falter, dropping through support at 46, closing on the low and now headed to the 200 DSMA at 45.30 on increasing volume unless we get a breather here soon. The story, of course, is the VIX, now at a 4 year high after hitting a stunning 31.76 today and then pulling [...]

Looks like the spitting cobra mentioned on Monday did get out of the bag, and it wasn’t pretty. Next stop for the Qs is in the 46 range and the weak indicator signals along with the NOT oversold reading argue for that target to materialize. Whether 46 will provide support, or just a jumping off [...]

Still trying to make sense out of the current volatility? You’re not alone. Some of the most savvy and experienced traders are hard pressed to find order in this market. A few have attempted to formulate a game plan, and Larry Connor’s recent post is worth a look. I have followed Larry for years, before [...]