ETF Prophet

We got the run up I was looking for, but buying dried up immediately and the sell off continued wih a vengeance into the close. After rising to R1 in thefirst half hour the Qs broke down to and through S1 at 10:45. A hairy bottom pattern in the 5 minute bars suggested a reversal [...]

The Qs performed as expected today. After an inital pop at the open, the Qs retreated to the 50 day SMA and then inched up for the rest of the day. The VIX also performed as expected. After the close high, wide range bar Friday, the VIX today showed a close low, wide range bar, [...]

I closed my Qs calls this am on the initial pop-up for a net gain of zero. Ditto on the IWMs except I took a .03 loss due to volatility adjustments by the market makers. The VIX showed the wide range, high close bar on a parabolic curve that I was expecting. At the same [...]

Well that was interesting. I unloaded my overnight Qs puts a little too soon this morning, thereby missing the huge downside gains I would have otherwise enjoyed. However, I did get to spend most of the day at the dentist, ultimately ending up with a root canal. Not quite sure which experience was the most [...]

The DOW lurched forward today, driven by MRK, BA, IBM and XOM. Otherwise, no impetus. After an opening pop and drop, IWM finally came alive at noon, and surged up to close just off the PP pivot and the zero line and now looks poised to drop again. The Qs almost made it to 49.70 [...]

The VIX broke through the upper band and is now precisely where it was a month ago. Looking back to July 10(not a band break), June 26 and June 7 we see band breaks and moves more than 10% above the 10 day SMA typically display impressive next day reversals and quickly revert back to [...]

The Qs never got far off the PP pivot on Monday. The TRIT flatlined between PP and S1 and both the TICK and the NYAD remained downslope all day. Yes, the Dow was up 92.34 but that was driven by 4 stocks: MRK, IBM, PG and XOM. For a Monday, this was not a strong [...]

Some traders learn from their mistakes …….. others never recover. Trading is an adaptive, dynamic process that is filled with risk and uncertainty. Those who fail to adequately recognize this simple truth are in for rough ride. Contrary to popular myth, there is no holy grail trading system. Consistent trading is about a state of [...]

I finally got my call order filled after the Qs hit a very weak S4 (49.83) just after noon. The TRIT continued up for another hour sliding through S1 to top out at 1.94, and then reversing to confirm my buy signal. The VIX played deja-vu and mid-day soared back to short term resistance at [...]

Qs opened mid PP/S1 and promptly fell to S2 (50.09). I sold my overnight OTM puts at 7:00 (pst) for a ncie gain, and tried to buy the August OTM calls but the market makers are refusing to bring the bid down. Amazingly, the bids actually rise with each S1/S2 cycle swing while the Qs [...]

As expected, the VIX retreated to the 15s and is now riding below both the 10 and 20 day SMAs. Adam has suggested that 15 may be the new 12 (that is; median trading range). The demise of the uptick rule is a hot topic of recent blog posts and the real effect on the [...]

The markets have exhibited the character of New England weather lately…..if you don’t like what you’ve got just wait a few hours. Wednesday the Qs opened at S1 (50.00), chewed down past S2 (49.76) midday and then found major buying in the last 1/2 hour to push it up to PP (50.14). Volume picked up [...]

The Qs opened mid S1/S2 and modulated down to S2 precisely (49.78). We are now seeing the the bounce up…..the question is whether it will hold. VIX, TRIT and NYAD are all flatline at this point and TICK is upslope. Could be a bumpy ride today. I’m net long on this one, unless we retrace [...]

The Qs rose to new highs on Tuesday, driven by the twin 800 lb gorillas INTC and MSFT. Both the TICK and the NYAD went sharply downslope in the last hour of trading. With INTC down 1.32 after hours and MSFT down .35, this may be the catalyst to pull the Qs back to support [...]

The Qs did edge thru 50 today, meandering around R1 before retracing modestly back to PP. Looking at the values at the close the expectation for today is that we’ll see another run at DOW 14,000 and a further push up on the Qs although it may take until Wednesday to make the breakthrough. MOC [...]

Dr. Brett is always looking at the big picture and he has outdone himself today with an excellent collection of trading articles that can provide a solid working foundation for anyone’s trading style and bias. Don’t miss it.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing”. Thus spoke Warren Buffett in describing the attributes that made him so successful. How can the average trader make use of this simple homily in developing a mindset for consistently successful trading? Traders constantly strive to be correct in determining both the timing and direction of [...]

Qs almost touched 50 Friday and show no signs of turning around as they are still NOT overbought. Carl Futia now sees the Qs at 53. I hate to be a shill for Carl but his calls have been impressive. With Dow 14,000 only a wink away, we’ll probably see that too….maybe today as Monday’s [...]