ETF Prophet

PWE is one of my favorite dividend plays, but the way they game this thing can make a strong man cry. PWE behaves like a high school drama queen, with major fluctuations either direction as the stops get wiped and the shorts get hammered. With the renewed vigor in XLE PWE has taken off again [...]

Got the Bollinger Band reversal we were expecting. Next stop, 10 day SMA , then 20. End of month and July 4th historical up bias hint that VIX may fall to the 50 day SMA.Histogram still looks solidly OB. As with XLE, the Qs went right to support and then reversed. In yesterday’s case precisely [...]

Show time for XLE. Can oil really break support? The near 68s are paying $ 1.55 and the ITM 67s are paying $2.15 or +2%. Risk ratio looks attractive to me and I am stepping on a few with 24 days to expiration.

TICK action has not favored the bulls recently. Chart suggests we still have room to the down slide until we get the capitulation low. Semis are actually positive this am, led by the twins, MSFT and INTC and the Qs are following. Gold (broken through support) and oil (at support)have suffered major pullbacks the past [...]

Huge volume on XLF last 3 days. Not quite sure this is the intermediate bottom but picked some near the pm lows and sold the 36s for 2.5%. TLT had a good day. Remains to be seen if today’s pop on the NYAD to 4+ and R2 can hold though 2 articles in the new [...]

I should have seen this earlier. VIX on a double short term top. The VIX is one place I like the daily bollinger band (14,2). The turns are generally well predicted by the bands, although the action can stay firmly in the middle for extended periods of time. I usually put on at least a [...]

Could be a double bottom in TLT. Little pop and drop at the open but still holding well above Friday’s close. Next near term support looks like 88 area so some room to go here. With 26 days to expiration, protection is a bit thin. The ATMs are yielding 1%, the close OTMs at .5%.Keeping [...]

For those who missed this quarterly session of the Traders Expo, my opinion is that you didn’t miss much. I typically go to the Las Vegas meeting each year and each year attendance is less and less. The number of exhibitors keeps declining and the crowds that were there a few years ago are gone. [...]

EBAY on a tear this am with China news and an upgrade. I’ve ridden this one up since a nice hairy bottom back in August and although the current chart may be a double bottom or a trap door, I’m playing the near 32.50 calls,which at 1.10 yield a potential nice 4% for 29 days.

STX showing good strength this am following yesterday’s strong showing in the face of market collaspse. Pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Little downside protection from the calls as volatilty at the 20s is only 38. Better play at the 22.50s. Close when delta approaches high 80s.

Yesterday’s action can only be characterized as a pop and really big drop day. Here’s a daily chart of the NYSE advance decline line. A diffent way to look at market volatility but the histogram and MACD signals give a close indication of the turns. One thing I look for after a day like yesterday [...]

We got the bounce off the VIX zero line. A big one. This morning’s early action suggests we may have more to go.

VIX popped down to 12.75 at the open today, bringing it to intermediate support. Action was somewhat subdued yesterday as the rollover window began to close. Premium faded throughout the day…..I missed a couple valid fills no thanks to my usually reliable broker and the folks at the ISE. Stay tuned to see if VIX [...]

Nice post today by Vix and More on a library of books dedicated to risk.

Here’s a weekly of EK again. 32 days till expiration and a 2%+ yield on the near 27.50 Buy/write.EK has really popped out of the box with its new digital technology, but is beginning to look a bit overextended along with the rest of the market…hence the 27.50s.

Recap for the week…..Back on Jan 16th, Vix and More noted the following: Options expiration week…. is the only week where the VIX has traditionally made a significant move down, probably a case of reality falling short of the expectations that some associate with — and plan for — on triple and quadruple witching expiration [...]

NEM volatility holding firm. A July 40 Buy/write will yield 3% +. Negligible dividend.Headed for an intermediate triple bottom on next turn?

A little earnings pop from WM this am. The July 42.50 Buy/write will yield just over 3%. July 26th is x-div for .55, so an August rollver will yield an additonal 1 %+.