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December 2007 Rewind – Santa’s Folly

Posted by on December 31st, 2007

Apparently Rudolf got lost this year as the vaunted “Santa Claus Rally” became “Santa’s Folly.” Indeed, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices falling -0.86%, -0.80%, and -0.20%, respectively, the equity markets put in their poorest December performance since 2002. Although there were more positive days on balance throughout the [...]

12.31.07 – The only thing…

Posted by on December 31st, 2007

… to be enthusiastic about today’s market action is the relative strength we are seeing in the Financial Sector (XLF). Maybe that will lead the overall market somewhere more positive by day’s end. Interesting barbell forming in the 2008 Market Opinion poll on the right. We traders certainly do have our opinions, don’t we? Have [...]

Blue Monday

Posted by on December 31st, 2007

A Blue Monday, for sure. So much for the positive tone of Friday’s 30 minute bars. The Qs were in a downdraft from the get go and never looked back. I was encouraged about 12:30ish when it looked like S2 wasn’t going to get hit. With the overall market weakness it should have been a [...]

Qs Weekly Update

Posted by on December 29th, 2007

The Qs finished up $ 1.04 on the lowest weekly volume for the year, so any technical comments at this juncture are surely suspect and should be considered in the spirit of possibility rather than probability. The top chart is the weekly 3 LRs study (30,11,3), the lower chart is the daily 3 LRs study. [...]

The blahs

Posted by on December 28th, 2007

Top chart is 5 minute bars, lower is 30 minute. Qs finished the day just where they finished yesterday on like volume of 67M. The call premium evaporated like smoke in the first few minutes of the session and only very nimble fingers could capture any overnight gains. The 5 minute bar at 10:00 was [...]

12.28.07 – Nuetral Day…

Posted by on December 28th, 2007

…so far… Tick and A-D lines essentially flat — constructive, I suppose, but looks like we could be slipping here. Europe is holding up relatively better. The TNX (ten-year note) is getting pounded. Boy those new homes numbers were bad; really killed what could have been a nice bounce day going into New Year’s Eve. [...]

Pullback

Posted by on December 27th, 2007

The assassination today put some real turmoil in the markets. Early on it looked like the Qs might actually hold it together, but the downward momentum was just too great. Checking over the NAZ100 components I was amused to see that about 85 of the components were negative and the only real strength was in [...]

Grading 2007 Risk/Reward across Sectors & Styles

Posted by on December 27th, 2007

Even the casual investor couldn’t have missed this year’s financial news focus on “Increased Volatility” and “Split Markets.” Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) provide us with an easy tool to take a deeper look into these headlines across both Sectors & Styles alike. In this regard, the table below catalogues total returns and historic volatility across [...]

12.27.07 – India Fund Opportunity?

Posted by on December 27th, 2007

I just heard Bob Pisani on CNBC “predict” the creation of several hundred new ETFs for 2008, including an India fund. I guess he has never heard of the NYSE’s IFN, or Barclay’s INP. These are both down big-time today on the neighboring Pakistan/Bhutto news. They seem to have bottomed for the day and could [...]

Qs hit 52.60 target

Posted by on December 26th, 2007

The Qs made a solid run to the target I’ve mentioned for a few days: 52.60. Today that target (amazingly) corresponded to the R2 level so with the upward break off the PP pivot at noon, it was a good bet that 52.60 would get hit. The Qs then picked up volume in the last [...]

12.26.07 – Leaders Weakness

Posted by on December 26th, 2007

The so-called “leaders” (Financials – XLF, Transports – IYT and Semi-Conductors – SMH) are all showing more relative weakness than the major averages belie. Overall a flat, low-volume market. What did I expect the day after Christmas? Speaking of which, hope yours was terrific! Nothing to show today so far… oh how I hate sideways [...]

Monday

Posted by on December 24th, 2007

The Qs Sweet Spot trade was triggered by today’s opening gap, but I failed to take it when the 6:38 -6 :45 pull back failed to materialize. Volume, as suspected was a pathetic 37M (the lowest since July 3) in the Qs and the action was essentially flat after the first 20 minutes. The usual [...]

12.24.07 – "The Only Gift Worth Possessing"

Posted by on December 24th, 2007

Markets are up nicely on MER news and holiday cheer. Some short-term overbought signals starting to trigger. I’d consider hedging, but don’t fight the tape — especially this week. In answer to a Wall Street Journal article today… enjoy your time with friends and family! – Jeff Happy Holidays! NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

Tis the Season

Posted by on December 22nd, 2007

Still trying to figure it all out? Here’s a picture that will help put things in perspective for the Christmas season. Viewing instructions. . . . . . . . . . . 1. Open window to max size 2. Relax and then focus on the 4 small vertical dots in the middle of the [...]

Qs Weekly Update

Posted by on December 22nd, 2007

Top chart is the weekly 3 LRs chart, lower is the daily. Current reading: weekly – negative; daily – positive For the week, the Qs were up $.88 or 1.73%. We finished the week on 2 solid back to back gap-ups, a pattern not seen for a while. Meanwhile, the Qs are approaching intermediate resistance [...]

2008 Market Prediction Poll

Posted by on December 22nd, 2007

It won’t be long before the primaries take over the news cycle. Why wait to vote? Make your prediction of the S&P500′s 2008 performance on the right-hand sidebar now! Post your prediction as a comment below to win a prize this time next year!

What’s next for the Qs?

Posted by on December 21st, 2007

Continued momo in the markets today, although on the lowest volume in 10 days in the case of the Qs. The volume surge to the upside in the last 10 minutes was encouraging for those looking for a continued Santa Claus rally. I stood back from today’s action due to some other commitments, but with [...]

12.21.07 – Flatlined

Posted by on December 21st, 2007

First, yes, I retitled and final edited the article below to make it “cuter” for republication. Strong consumer spending has us up nicely on the day, but now the market is essentially flat and financials are pulling back slightly. Yes, this could keep going through the end of the year, but do keep an eye [...]

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