IWM currently holding on to its 200 day MA at 113.52. Below there it will be important for the recent low of 112.20 to hold. Getting and staying above 114 would be a good first step to a possible recovery back to highs. GDP/FOMC/NFP are all slated next week and could provide a large moving range between 196 to 202 SPY.
With the market closing down fairly strongly today I thought I would look at other times ES closed down on a Friday after making a 50-day high the day before. Results are below.
The study below is from last night’s Quantifinder. New readers may wonder why I use a day-of-week filter with this study. The VIX has a natural tendency to fall on Fridays and rise on Mondays. Because of this I typically separate out those days from the rest of the week when conducting VIX-based studies. This particular study looks at large (2.5% + ) mid-week rises in the VIX during times the SPX is closing at a 50-day high, like we saw on Thursday. All results are updated.
In response to a reader query on my contention that SPY is generally lagging the other indices here’s a little study of SPY, DIA and QQQ using M3 to look at leadership momentum and it’s clear that SPY has been the recent laggard.
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After 60+ days of calm, we finally had back to back 1% movement on the S&P500 with poor international news flow. The red hot housing market along with improving economy continue to put a strong support under the market. Bulls continue to hold the upper hand.